Global Energy
Perspective
2018


Our Global Energy Perspective summarizes our fundamental energy demand outlook and shows projections of how the energy transition will unfold over the next decades.
Scroll down to see some highlights of our 2018 Reference Case and get the free summary report.

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01
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Redrawing the map for regional energy consumption

Driven by population growth and increasing wealth, India, Africa, and the non-OECD countries in Asia (excluding China) will lead energy demand growth from 2015-2050, with each ultimately surpassing Europe in absolute demand. All OECD regions will experience declining energy demand, and Chinese demand will peak well before 2050.

02
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Renewables’ cost decline will
accelerate further

Today, renewables are already competitive with new-build fossil fuel generation across regions

By 2030, renewables will out-compete even the variable costs of existing fossil generation in many markets

In combination with cheaper storage, this will enable high renewables’ penetration in many markets

As a result, global net capacity additions of generation
between now and 2050 will be 80% renewables

03
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Electricity demand will grow 4 times faster than demand for other fuels.
Electrification will accelerate across sectors.

TRANSPORT

The further declines in battery prices will help electric vehicles to break even before 2030 in most markets and applications. In combination with regulation and consumer preferences, this will lead to sales shares of 20-60% across key markets

Buildings

The economic surge of many developing economies goes hand-in-hand with the penetration of electric appliances like fridges, televisions, or air conditioning units

Industry

Electric heat pumps will be able to competitively take a share in low-heat processes. After 2040, this is similarly expected for medium-heat processes

04
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Will liquids demand plateau after a peak in 2037 or actually decline?

Air quality-driven regulation and the competition from gas and renewables will drive down coal use across most regions. However, with strong growth in India and other non-OECD Asia, the global change will be quite small

For liquids, the demand peak in 2037 will be driven by trends in road transport. For oil, greater efficiency and electrification will lead to peak demand in road transport before 2030

By contrast, gas demand will continue to grow throughout the period, yet the rate of growth is modest

05
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Despite the accelerated development of renewables, electrification across sectors, and efficiency developments, we expect 2050 energy-related CO2 emissions to be 1.5-2.0 times higher than the level necessary to meet the 2° Celsius target.

06

Navigating this energy transition poses critical questions for all stakeholders ranging from energy companies to governments and consumers…

What are yours?

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Find out more about all the insights and forecasts in our Global Energy Perspective 2018

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Global Energy Perspective 2018

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