Our Global Energy Perspective summarizes our fundamental energy demand outlook and shows projections of how the energy transition will unfold over the next decades.
Scroll down to see some highlights of our 2018 Reference Case and get the free summary report.
Redrawing the map for regional energy consumption
Driven by population growth and increasing wealth, India, Africa, and the non-OECD countries in Asia (excluding China) will lead energy demand growth from 2015-2050, with each ultimately surpassing Europe in absolute demand. All OECD regions will experience declining energy demand, and Chinese demand will peak well before 2050.
Renewables’ cost decline will
Today, renewables are already competitive with new-build fossil fuel generation across regions
By 2030, renewables will out-compete even the variable costs of existing fossil generation in many markets
In combination with cheaper storage, this will enable high renewables’ penetration in many markets
As a result, global net capacity additions of generation
between now and 2050 will be 80% renewables
Electricity demand will grow 4 times faster than demand for other fuels.
Electrification will accelerate across sectors.
The further declines in battery prices will help electric vehicles to break even before 2030 in most markets and applications. In combination with regulation and consumer preferences, this will lead to sales shares of 20-60% across key markets
The economic surge of many developing economies goes hand-in-hand with the penetration of electric appliances like fridges, televisions, or air conditioning units
Electric heat pumps will be able to competitively take a share in low-heat processes. After 2040, this is similarly expected for medium-heat processes
Will liquids demand plateau after a peak in 2037 or actually decline?
Air quality-driven regulation and the competition from gas and renewables will drive down coal use across most regions. However, with strong growth in India and other non-OECD Asia, the global change will be quite small
For liquids, the demand peak in 2037 will be driven by trends in road transport. For oil, greater efficiency and electrification will lead to peak demand in road transport before 2030
By contrast, gas demand will continue to grow throughout the period, yet the rate of growth is modest