Our vision

We are helping clients navigate the energy transition. Our Global Energy Perspective (GEP) is our fundamental outlook on energy demand until 2050, and it is developed by our dedicated sector teams, which are responsible for the primary research. We also collaborate with McKinsey experts around the world and across industries and engage with external industry experts to further refine our insights.

In addition to creating a downloadable report, we capture all insights in a web-based modeling application—the GEP App—to enable our teams and clients to access the specific sectors and countries they are most interested in.

Reference Case

Our latest consensus on how the energy transition will unfold

Based on our expertise, insights, and tools, the GEP 2018 Reference Case represents our latest consensus on how the energy transition will unfold. GEP reflects our deep understanding of industries, geographies, and cross-commodity trends and takes into account both macro- and micro-economic developments. Macro-economic trends include population growth and rising GDP, using reliable data from institutions such as the McKinsey Global Institute and the UN, as well as proprietary data on commodity prices like oil.

Our Reference Case reflects predominant trends—like the electrification of road transport or the accelerating competitiveness of renewables—and less obvious micro-economic drivers—like the insulation of buildings in India or shifts in electricity demand curves.

GEP serves as a basis to discuss the likely outcomes of different scenarios around major uncertainties and sensitivities. We model these as disruptors to answer our clients’ “what if” questions and to help them make critical decisions as they navigate the shifts in the energy landscape.

Sectors

We’ve shaped GEP around four main energy demand sectors: transport, buildings, industry, and power. The outlook includes 28 subsectors, like passenger cars, vans, 2- and 3-wheelers, buses, and trucks within the transport sector.”

Fuels

A unique feature of our global cross-sector demand model is the ability to forecast demand shifts for specific fuels such as oil. Our outlook contains a perspective on the demand outlook for different oil products like diesel, gasoline, or LPG as well as gas, coal, and electricity.

Countries

GEP models 145 countries and while our outlook also covers global trends, a unique aspect is that most insights are local. The differences between countries, ranging from regulation to access to natural resources to local weather conditions, lead to very different outcomes by country, and sometimes even within countries.”

Disruptors

GEP has the ability to model interdependencies and quantify the impact of disruptors, such as the higher penetration of electric vehicles, cheaper solar developments,or higher recycling rates. By sector, major disruptors for energy demand include:

Overall

On a cross-sector level, we look in particular at the impact of macro-drivers like population and GDP development

Transport

Higher EV penetration

Car sharing and autonomous driving of EVs

Industry

Higher plastics recycling rates and more efficient use of packaging

Across industries, the potential electrification of heat processes—starting with low and later medium heat

Power

Changing CO2 prices

The rapid cost decline of solar and wind-based power generation

Buildings

How quickly highly efficient electric heat pumps will take share from fossil fuel-powered pumps

A strong uptake in appliance ownership, particularly in emerging economies, with improvements in efficiency

Find out more about all the insights and forecasts in our
Global Energy Perspective 2018

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Global Energy Perspective 2018

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